Study of USGS NSHMP and HAZ45: PSHA Program Verification with PEER Benchmarks and a Case Study of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in West Java.
| Student | I Gede Jaya Wiadnyana |
|---|---|
| Supervisor(s) | Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhur Irsyam, M.S.E. and Dayu Apoji, S.T., M.T., M.Sc., Ph.D. |
| Year | 2026 |
Brief Abstract
Background. The accuracy of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is highly dependent on the numerical engine and modeling approach used to integrate seismic source and ground motion models. In regions with complex tectonic settings like West Java, discrepancies between software packages can lead to significant variations in seismic hazard estimates.
Objective. This study aims to verify the performance of the USGS NSHMP and Haz45 programs through a standardized benchmarking process and evaluate their application in a high-risk region
Methodology. The study first employs the PEER (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center) PSHA validation set to verify the numerical consistency of both software packages. Subsequently, a comparative spatial differentiation analysis is conducted using a case study of West Java, incorporating the latest Indonesian national seismic source parameters into both NSHMP and Haz45 environments.
Key Contribution. This research provides a rigorous verification of the USGS NSHMP and Haz45 engines, highlighting technical nuances in their integration methods. The results offer a localized seismic hazard map for West Java that serves as a benchmark for future infrastructure design and disaster mitigation strategies in the region.
Spatial distribution of the USGS/Haz45 PGA ratio across West Java. The map illustrates the numerical differentiation between the two software engines specifically for crustal fault source modeling